10/31 4:20PM

so eliot and i met around lunch time today just to try to get some direction, tried to get in touch with the rest of you but werent quite successful. anyways we saw that utilization of machines 1 and 3 were both at a solid 100% so we decided to buy 2 machines, one for each station. demand this time around, except for fluctuations, is supposed to be constant. We figured itd be a good idea to get our lead time down to under 2 days, then switch to the payment schedule with the $1000 payoff but a 2-4 day lead time. with demand being relatively constant we should be able to set a nice reorder point and level of machinery that will keep us at a very profitable level. itll take a few days to figure out what this is, but we figured wed just buy some machines, see if it was enough, then if not buy more til were at the point where lead times are low enough so we can make those calculations and switch the payment plan. let me know if you guys have any different opinions or anything isnt clear. last time eliot and i ran the whole simulation and i know u guys said youd take this one which if you guys still wanna do is fine- the main things we saw last time was that lead times were incredibly important as they effect revenue and the entire grade is on how much cash we have so anytime lead times rise to levels where were not getting paid just find out why and correct it. we have a few new variables this time around which will make it somewhat more complicated though but if anyone posts anything they run into here we should all just check this fairly frequently and well figure it out

Meeting Time

Hey, I know we are trying to set up a meeting for sometime tomorrow or the next day, I can't do tomorrow, but I can do thursday night if that works for everyone.

Individual assignments

Mike Rooney
1. Using data from the period prior to Day 50, estimate the capacity of the machine at Station 1. Can you do the same for the machines in Station 2 and Station 3? (Hint: Which station is the bottleneck? What seems to be the maximum number of jobs processed by a machine in one day during this period?)

Ben/Kyle
2. Using demand data, forecast (i) total demand on Day 100, and (ii) capacity (machine) requirements for Day 100.
Please create a graph for each of these, and 3 different forecasting techniques. 2 moving average 10 and 15 day, and also a linear trend for the first 50 days that predicts the 100th day. call me if you dont have these figures already, MIke rooney was the expert for capacity machines so you may want to get in contact with him, this is going to mean looking at what demand/lead times were doing vs machine utilization.

Eliot Arntz
3. Around Day 100, create forecasts for (i) total demand on Days 130, 150, and 170, and (ii) related capacity (machine) requirements. (Choose your own data periods. List the assumptions you base your forecast on.) How well did you do with these forecasts?

Matt
4.Try to identify on which days (i) demand levels out, and (ii) demand starts to decrease. (Hint: Moving Averages and Tracking Signal are often useful for tracking data over time.)
download the data if you don't know how call one of us. this is easiest done in a spread sheet and the moving average figures have already been done.
again graphs etc. to prove your points

If you have problems call me or text -973-615-3038-
also please post the earliest time after 6:00 you can meet tomorrow

if you have night classes just let me know when and we can meet after

just wondering if we can set a meeting time. i have a group meeting in another class tomorrow(Tuesday) but maybe wed.?

10/1 10:03PM

demand has jumped a bit but we have plenty of capacity for it, lead times and revenues still good and weve moved up to 3rd