so a meeting didn't pan out tonight but whatever. eliot agreed to put the whole thing together but he has shit to do tomorrow night so we all have to get our shit to him by like 8PM tomorrow. so heres what we have to do:

Case Questions to Answer in Your Deliverable

As part of their contract with you, Littlefield managers want your team to perform data analyses supporting the actions you take in their factory. Managers want you to answer the following:

1. Looking at the queues and utilization of the various stations in your factory at Day 50, what problems do you notice? Identify each problem and state the effect that it has on your factory’s operation.

2. Using the demand data provided to you before you take over the factory along with other relevant information from the above case, perform an M/M/S queuing analysis of Station 1*. Use this queuing analysis to determine the number of machines that you want to run at Station 1. What is the expected queue length (L_q) at Station 1, given the number of machines you choose? What is the expected waiting time in system (W_s) of an order at Station 1?

Perform a similar analysis for Station 3.

3. Using the data given to you prior to your takeover, develop an estimate for annual (268 day) demand for this product. Calculate the economic order quantity (EOQ) and reorder point (ROP) that you should use. Clearly list the values of the relevant variables that you used in calculating the EOQ and ROP. What assumptions did you have to make?

4. What is your recommended tactic for dealing with the end-of-lifetime inventory restocking at the end of this product’s lifecycle? How did you carry this out? What assumptions did you make?

Team Deliverable

Your team should turn in one summary of what actions you took during the week you had access to the factory, why you took those actions, and in retrospect whether you think you did the right thing. Show analysis to justify your conclusions.

Report Guidelines

Your report should be single-spaced, and should be written as a memo to the managers of Littlefield Technologies. Your summary should be about 2-3 pages in length. Your report should include:

1. An answer to each of the four questions above.

2. An explanation of what actions you took, why you took those actions, and the results you obtained. How closely did you follow the values you calculated in the questions above while you were in charge of the factory? If you deviated, why?

3. A statement of anything you would do differently if you were to run this same simulation again (remember, the exact demand distribution would be somewhat different.).

You may include an appendix (up to two additional pages) that presents regressions, forecast equations, or any other data analysis you perform during your control of the factory. This write-up is due Thursday, November 13, 2008.

I figured Matt could do case question 1, ben could do case question 2, kyle could do case question 3, eliot could do case question 4, and ill take care of report guidelines 2 and 3. if anyone is particularly unhappy with their part just trade with someone. so yeah just make sure you get it to eliot by 8 and we didnt fair too well on the simulation this time around so lets try to make up for it in the report, salvage a decent grade hopefully. Also if anyone whose questions involve data calculations should also email your stuff to me when youre done so i can incorporate it into the summary
my email is rooneypc@bc.edu and eliots is arntzel@bc.edu

changed the reorder quantity to half as much and the reorder point to twice as much so well make twice the orders of half as much inventory to reduce inventory holding costs

so eliot and i talked, tried calling you guys but to no avail. were real low down so we need to play this very carefully. demand is constant in this one and our lead times are just fine so we don't need to purchase anymore machinery. in an effort to reduce inventory cost to help out our cash flow we slightly reduced our inventory and are going to wait until we can see if its effecting our lead times. if lead times arent effected well lower it a little more. we think the reason everyone else has so much money is cuz they financed with debt and we used our cash, but theyll have to pay that debt back at 20% and are only making 10% off the cash so hopefully we'll shoot up at the end.
bottomline: we dont need to purchase anything else and lets see how low we can get inventory without effecting our lead times and then just wait it out.
and no offense guys but that last machine purchase was unnecessary, utilization was fine for machine 1 so if youre going to change anything please make sure it isnt a waste of money or going to cost us in the end

also keep in mind trends of the data we have, since random fluctuations make single data points unreliable for decisions. investments are costly so we just gotta make sure theyre warranted. i went ahead and switched us to a more profitable payment plan since our lead time is below 2 days now

10/31 4:20PM

so eliot and i met around lunch time today just to try to get some direction, tried to get in touch with the rest of you but werent quite successful. anyways we saw that utilization of machines 1 and 3 were both at a solid 100% so we decided to buy 2 machines, one for each station. demand this time around, except for fluctuations, is supposed to be constant. We figured itd be a good idea to get our lead time down to under 2 days, then switch to the payment schedule with the $1000 payoff but a 2-4 day lead time. with demand being relatively constant we should be able to set a nice reorder point and level of machinery that will keep us at a very profitable level. itll take a few days to figure out what this is, but we figured wed just buy some machines, see if it was enough, then if not buy more til were at the point where lead times are low enough so we can make those calculations and switch the payment plan. let me know if you guys have any different opinions or anything isnt clear. last time eliot and i ran the whole simulation and i know u guys said youd take this one which if you guys still wanna do is fine- the main things we saw last time was that lead times were incredibly important as they effect revenue and the entire grade is on how much cash we have so anytime lead times rise to levels where were not getting paid just find out why and correct it. we have a few new variables this time around which will make it somewhat more complicated though but if anyone posts anything they run into here we should all just check this fairly frequently and well figure it out

Meeting Time

Hey, I know we are trying to set up a meeting for sometime tomorrow or the next day, I can't do tomorrow, but I can do thursday night if that works for everyone.

Individual assignments

Mike Rooney
1. Using data from the period prior to Day 50, estimate the capacity of the machine at Station 1. Can you do the same for the machines in Station 2 and Station 3? (Hint: Which station is the bottleneck? What seems to be the maximum number of jobs processed by a machine in one day during this period?)

Ben/Kyle
2. Using demand data, forecast (i) total demand on Day 100, and (ii) capacity (machine) requirements for Day 100.
Please create a graph for each of these, and 3 different forecasting techniques. 2 moving average 10 and 15 day, and also a linear trend for the first 50 days that predicts the 100th day. call me if you dont have these figures already, MIke rooney was the expert for capacity machines so you may want to get in contact with him, this is going to mean looking at what demand/lead times were doing vs machine utilization.

Eliot Arntz
3. Around Day 100, create forecasts for (i) total demand on Days 130, 150, and 170, and (ii) related capacity (machine) requirements. (Choose your own data periods. List the assumptions you base your forecast on.) How well did you do with these forecasts?

Matt
4.Try to identify on which days (i) demand levels out, and (ii) demand starts to decrease. (Hint: Moving Averages and Tracking Signal are often useful for tracking data over time.)
download the data if you don't know how call one of us. this is easiest done in a spread sheet and the moving average figures have already been done.
again graphs etc. to prove your points

If you have problems call me or text -973-615-3038-
also please post the earliest time after 6:00 you can meet tomorrow

if you have night classes just let me know when and we can meet after

just wondering if we can set a meeting time. i have a group meeting in another class tomorrow(Tuesday) but maybe wed.?

10/1 10:03PM

demand has jumped a bit but we have plenty of capacity for it, lead times and revenues still good and weve moved up to 3rd

9/30 9:03 PM

everything looks good...demand is displaying its first downward trend. lead times and revenue back to optimal. station queues all very low. were in 4th but only by 80,000. i doubt there will be much shifting around in the next few days if demand has finally normalized but once demand drops well have plenty of opportunity to pull ahead by carefully forecasting and selling machines off at the right time

9/30 5:07 pm

queues are way down for stations 1 and 2, lead times are back down and revenue is back up to $1500. were in 4th but by less than $100,000. lets watch station 3 carefully though i think there may be a chance that the increased capacity on stations 1 and 2 could overload station 3 although since capacity is mostly dictated by demand we should be fine but something to think about. anyone have any clue how that one team only has 20,000?

30 second clip to get you thru the day

that was me sorry apparently matt lombardi was still signed in on my lap top, lead time spiked, we reacted, also ques were wayy up.

9/30 12:19 PM

sorry matt i was sleeping at 9 am. so eliot and i went ahead and bought machines for stations 1 and 2. weve had a spike in demand and our revenues were beginning to fall while our lead times rising and the queues were mainly at those stations. At this point we dont anticipate demand rising much higher so with any luck our purchases of machines may be over and we can just ride it out til demand begins to fall

Mike you need to answer your cell phone

Monday 11Am

checked in everything appears to be running smoothly, our chief competition has dropped down to 4th looks like he may have bought machinery, in which case he is leading us close to 30k
Our lead times spiked last night which is a serious concern.
Machine 1 and 2 were close to max utulization.

However, I am beginning to wonder if we have hit the level phase in which case it would not be prudent to invest any more money.


Eliot

9/29 9:44 am

as of this morning revenues are still right near $1500 so at this point it doesnt appear like lead times or any station queue is affecting our cash flow since all the jobs are getting out on time for the most part. buying new machines is tempting but lets just be careful about over investing. by tonight i think well need another machine for station 2 at the minimum- it has quite the upward trend in utilization but isnt at 100% yet. queues for all the station are good except a few spikes at station 2. were back in 1st which is nice

9/28 1:37 AM

Checked in together seem to be doing very well, I am concerned about lead times and station 1 again, demand still seems to be increasing higher then our expectations.

I think that potentialyl buying 1 more machine would be optimal.

9/28 6:19 pm

everything seems to be doing well no high queues or lead times and were back up to 3rd. well watch demand closely to try to forecast when machinery will be necesary

9/28 3:00

Checked in this afternoon at 12:00 and again at 3:00 demand has increased, will take alook at machinery soon

9/28 11:55 am

lead times, utilization/queues, and revenue all pretty good
demand slightly leveled off for the moment
no action necesary at the moment

9/28 2:32 am

so just checked on everything. seems like the purchase of machines is just starting to make an effect. were no longer #1 but thats fine were ahead of the game everyone else is gunna need to buy machines too and well be set. our lead times and queue times for each machine seem much better. will check again in morning

ok so i realized that the scale on the queues was fucked by a spike so both station 1 and station 3 have pretty big queues right now and lead time and revenue is starting to fall so im gunna go ahead and buy a machine for station 1 and station 3 at this point the interest wed make from keeping the cash is probably less than the revenue well lose from lead times rising above the 1 day mark

9/27 10:34

things seem to be pretty much the same as last time we checked
queue for station 3 is getting pretty high so unless anyone has any objections im gunna buy a machine for it before i go to bed
station 2 queue growing as well but utilization really isnt high enough to justify another machine yet

9/27 8:33 pm

just checked- everything seems to be pretty good, our lead time is still below a day, we've moved into first place but thatll change once we buy more machinery its a really close race at the moment. queues for the stations seem to be pretty good. we'll deffinitely have to be buying another machine for station 3 but i dont think its necesary yet. station 1 is sorta acting all over the place the last couple of days but since we are getting interest on our cash i don't see the need to buy another machine juuuuust yet but deffinitely soon. maybe later tonight if things move in that direction or if not then deffinitely in the morning. demand seems to have leveled off for the moment over the last couple of days (hours) ill checked again in a couple hours and see if any of the trends have changed and to see if action will be necesary tonight. also ill try not to write essays everytime i update the blog from now on

kk i'll call you tonight, just checked in again everything is sitll running smoothly but demand is defiantly picking up

yo lets hold off on buying a machine for station 2 for now its utilization is much lower than the others, it has yet to max out and were earning interest on the cash itd take to invest. station 1 may need another machine too its creeping back up in queue and utilization.

9/27 10:00 AM

updated excel spread sheet
checked on the utilization of all machines
Going to buy another machine later today, for areas 2 and 3.

Eliot

9/27 1:27 Am

Checked in on teh simulation everything seems to be running smoothly, station 1 is not running at max capacity any longer, station 2 and 3 need to be monitored closely.

9/26/2008 10:46 PM

just checked it again, lead time for completed orders is dropping as well as queue time for station 1 although queue time for station 3 is creeping upwards so we may want to consider buying another machine for station 3 in the near future but it's not necesary yet. now that lead time has fallen our revenue is climbing again which is good. were not ranked highly since weve invested in machines already while other groups have done...well nothing. all's good for now

9/26 7:30 PM

Checked in and updated the numbers. Station 1 is still running at full capacity, bought another machine for station 1 as it still seems to be a bottle neck.

Everything else appears to be running smoothly. Going to go have more libations

no major changes
No spikes

Eliot

mikes cell: 973-650-2771

9/26 3:30 PM

First meeting with Mike Rooney and Eliot checked in on the simulation.
Due to massive lead time and the que and utilization was consistently at 100%, and the lead time was at and near 3 days, we bought a machine for station on. We also finished up all our excel spreadsheets and sat back for a few hours drinking libations and checking to make sure our predictions worked.

File Format

September 26th 5PM littlefield

Was the file emailed?

YES // NO?

Was the group/partner consulted?

Yes/NO

Anything Major occurred?

YES/NO

arntzel@mail.bc.edu

617 686 6701, lombarmu@bc.edu

MWF- 9 and 10
T TH- 9, 1030, 12

hockey 2-6

Important Websites

http://lab.responsive.net/lt/bostonx/entry.html

Student login: user
Password: user 1

TRIAL UNTIL SIM STARTS

http://lab.responsive.net/lt/boston/entry.html

Kyle Weekly Schedule

Kyle's Schedule:

Monday: Class at 9am, class at 1pm
Tuesday: Class at 10:30, class at 12:00
Wednesday: Class at 9am, class at 1pm, class 7-9:30
Thursday: Class at 10:30, class at 12:00
Friday:Class at 9am, class at 1pm
Everyday I have hockey practice from 2:30-5:30/6:00

Access

Group name: bostonfinancialgroup
Password: rooney

Please post your full name and individual access codes

tentative meeting

8:30 THURSDAY NIGHT Main lounge in 66 "not the basement" where the entrance to 66 is
if you need help getting into the building my cell is 973-615-3038
Please bring your class materials and a lap top

class scheduel

Monday: class from 10-11
2:00 - 4:00
Practice 4:00-6:00
Tuesday: class from 11-1:15
2-4:00
Wednesday:class from 10-11
2:00 - 4:00
Practice 4:00-6:00
Meeting 10-12:00PM
Thursday: Class from 11-1:15
Friday: class from 10-11
2:00 - 3:00
Practice 4:00-6:00

Mike's Schedule

Monday- class from 10-12 and 6-8:30
Tuesday- class from 12-1:15 and 3-4:15
Wednesday- class from 10-12 and 1-2
Thursday- class from 12-1:15 and 3-4:15
Friday- class from 2-3

Kyle

Hey, I'm on the blog now, I'll post schedule tomorrow

9/11/08 10:56pm

Operations

Please post your name

Schedule

Better week to be active between the two simulations

Ideas

Your best youtube video:



Here is some reading for when you get a chance:

http://web.mit.edu/sloanops/SubPages/OpsSimCom.html

http://littlefield.responsive.net/demo/littlefield.html

http://mba.yale.edu/news_events/CMS/Articles/5952.shtml

http://www.ioe.ac.uk/ccs/dowling/studentswork/mccarty_diss.pdf

http://www.sba.pdx.edu/faculty/melliep/339/CapacityCase1.pdf

http://www.sba.pdx.edu/faculty/melliep/339/miyaokaCase2.pdf

http://archive.ite.journal.informs.org/Vol5No2/Miyaoka/

http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/groups/newspubs/haasnews/archives/hn041706.html